Standard & Poor's agency maintains Cameroon's rank

The rating agency, Standard & Poor's, has maintained its "B" ranking of Cameroon for its short-term debt.

The same note was renewed for its long-term debt, with a stable outlook over the next twelve months.

Besides the political risks, Paul Biya's succession, safety, the war against Boko Haram in the far north, the weakness of per capita income and widening twin deficits are the main threats to the Cameroonian economy.

Cameroon's public debt "remains low but may rise rapidly as a result of higher deficits," said the rating agency in its October 23 press release. The country's debt could reach 35% of GDP in 2018, against 29.5% this year, if Cameroon is able to lift the Eurobond of $ 1.5 billion as announced.

Deficits

The combination of the high level of investment and the decline in oil revenues, the budget deficit widened from 4.1% of GDP to -5.5% between 2013 and 2014. It should stabilize to -5.4% this year, according to the agency, before gradually fall back to 4.8% in 2018.

The current account deficit also digs to reach -5.2% of GDP in 2015, against -4.2% in 2014 and -3.8% in 2013. It is a situation due to a fall in export revenue from black gold.

Investments

Growth in turn would stabilize at 5.8% in 2015. Despite the fall in prices per barrel and the potential drop in oil production, the agency believes that other sectors will take over to maintain growth. Among them, road and port investments in transport and agriculture and also the expected increase in gas production.

"We expect real GDP growth of 5.7% per year on average in 2015-2018, for the three-year emergency plan launched by the government in December 2014 could contribute to improving agricultural value chains, development of energy supply and dynamism of the construction sector," said the agency.