IMF lowering the economic prospects of Cameroon

Cameroon, like the oil producing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, is expected to "further deterioration" of its macroeconomic aggregates, according to a report published in the economic outlook by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), on Tuesday.

The report which was titled "Sub-Saharan Africa face a deteriorating environment," invokes the planned cuts in budgetary expenditure, which does not fully balance the sharp drop in budget revenues related to petroleum activities; allowing a spreading in the time of adjustment.

The IMF is also worried about the effect the sharp decline of revenues from exports of commodities but also security issues in a region covering Cameroon, Niger, Nigeria and Chad,but also in Kenya and Mali which weigh on economic activity, undermining public finances and decreasing the chance to benefit from the flow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).

If these security problems "were to persist or grow, the negative effect on economic growth and the risk of political instability at the regional level will be amplified."

Regarding specifically Cameroon, the IMF foresees a gross domestic product growth (GDP), excluding oil 5.1% in 2015 and 5.5 in 2016 against 5.4% in 2014, an expansion of the money supply in the broad sense 8.6% in 2015, 7.7% in 2016 against 10.5% in 2014, an annual change in consumer prices of 2.0% in 2015 and 2.1% in 2016 , against 1.9% in 2014.

The same forecasts point to a current account balance of -5.0% of GDP in 2015 against -5.2 in 2016 and -4.6% in 2014, an overall fiscal balance, including grants of -5, 1% in 2015 and -5.6% in 2016, against -5.5% in 2014.

These data, stated the report, contrast with those established in mid-June by the multilateral surveillance mission of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC), Cameroon which provided a growth rate amounting to 6.3% in late 2015.

The experts of the sub-region had however warned against infrastructural and energy deficits that currently challenge Cameroon and which, if unchecked, could fill the upturn thus projected.