Growth forecasts mixed for 2015

In an international environment of moderate, heterogeneous and uncertain recovery, the growth forecast for 2015 is mixed and geopolitical risks are high, but the mechanisms of the Franc Zone play a stabilizing role, reported Franc Zone 2014.

The Franc Zone 2014 analyses the Economic Outlook for the current year and in detail, the projections for West African economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) rely on the growth of 6.7% in 2015.

On the other hand, for the countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), the decline in oil revenues which some economies are dependent on has an impact on budgetary and external revenues and forced a drastic adjustment of expenses.

Growth in the sub-region should, according to forecasts by the Bank of Central Africa States (BEAC, be situated at 2.8% this year, unlike the 2.5% announced in Yaoundé on September 29, 2015.

The continuous decline in the price of a barrel of oil and raw materials could further weaken the external auditors of the exporting countries. To better manage this external shock, the States will have to improve the efficiency of fiscal policies.

This includes a better mobilization of tax revenues, an optimization of expenditure on long-term growth, the formation of human and physical capital in priority and reduction of inefficient spending, including subsidies for fuel prices.

Facing all this, the diversification of economies is still prescribed. But also, reforms along the lines to improve the business climate, to regulate the financial system, create more jobs and transform into an asset, the demographic dynamism.

Retro

According to the document, economic performance was rather favourable in 2014 compared to the other countries of sub-Saharan Africa. There was a significant increase of 6.5% growth for the UEMOA, substantial rebound to 4.7% for the CEMAC and slowdown at 2.1% for the Comoros.

The coverage rate of the currency issuance by foreign exchange reserves are in significant decline for several years. But, according to the report, they amounted to end 2014 at levels still largely higher than the threshold fixed in the framework of the agreements of the Zone franc.

What is considered to be a pledge of external stability of FCFA and Comorian. The report also analyzed the conduct of monetary policies deemed "relatively accommodative" and budget deficits.