Ndamukong Suh deal will be a disaster for Dolphins

Ndamukong Suh will reportedly take his talents to the Miami Dolphins and sign a contract that includes $60 million guaranteed.

Since entering the league in 2010, Suh was selected to four Pro Bowls and was named first-team all-pro on three occasions. In 2014, the 28-year-old was officially credited with 8 1/2 sacks, and the game charters at Pro Football Focus penciled him in for 57 sacks, hits and hurries — the most among any defensive tackle.

He was also graded by Pro Football Focus as the second-best run-stopping defensive tackle in the game.

In Miami, he joins the league’s second past pass-rushing unit and 17th rated rush defense and will be paired with another Pro Bowl player in Cameron Wake, who was the highest rated 4-3 defensive end last season.

Suh is also a major upgrade over incumbent defensive tackle Randy Starks, whose future with Miami is now in question.

Last year’s starting defensive tackle Randy Starks is scheduled to make $5 million in 2015, which is too much for a backup to play behind Suh and fellow starter Earl Mitchell.

Miami spent the past couple of weeks slashing expensive veteran salaries such as Cortland Finnegan, Brian Hartline, Brandon Gibson, Philip Wheeler and Nate Garner to help make room for Suh. Expect Starks and his $5 million salary also to be on the chopping block as the Dolphins look to create more cap room in free agency.

But Suh still isn’t worth the money. The particulars of the deal would have Miami guarantee him $60 million in the first three years on a contract that is expected to average $19 million over six years. That means he would have to perform four times as well as last year’s Pro Bowl season for the Dolphins to get fair value. Here’s why:

According to Advanced Football Analytics, Expected Points Added Plus – which measures playmaking ability on a per-game basis – fits best with the salary data available.

[A]lthough it’s far from perfect, it captures the impact of individual contribution to game outcome without sensitivity to situational variables beyond the control of the player.

Teams are willing to annually pay $2 million per +EPA/G minus $170,000. That means Suh would have to post a 9.9 +EPA/G in each of the next three seasons to be worth $20 million per year. Last year Suh was fifth in +EPA/G among defensive tackles at 2.72, which is valued at approximately $5.4 million. The league-leader at defensive tackle was Gerald McCoy of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In Suh’s best year to date (2013), he maxed out at 3.56 +EPA/G.

In other words, he is going to be very very very overpaid.