War on Boko Haram: Can Idriss Deby be trusted?

Chad’s President Idriss Deby stroke a high chord of regional solidarity last Saturday, when he personally escorted an army into Northern Cameroon in response to Yaounde’s ‘friendly and brotherly’ call for international support to combat Boko Haram.

With 2000 men on 400 trucks, some 20 tankers and a fleet of war aircraft, the Chadian ‘contingent’ earlier announced by a Unity Palace communiqué turned out to be a full blown army, marching into Maroua amidst wild admiration from locals.

Until now, external military support to Cameroon’s yearlong war against the bloodthirsty Islamic sect Boko Haram has been limited to armament, logistics, intelligence and cash. Therefore, the Chadian deployment was the first time ever that a foreign army crossed into Cameroon territory to back up the war effort.

President Deby announced in a televised address at the weekend that he was also considering a request from Nigeria to bar Boko Haram’s progress from the border with Niger.

From many years of fighting a rebellion in his own country since seizing power in a military coup in 1990, Deby has built one of the most efficient military mights on the continent. Four thousand of his men were particularly instrumental in restoring peace to Mali in 2013 when France led the ‘Opération Serval’ to combat a Tuareg insurgency in the north of that country. Many believe that Chadian fire removed the highly wanted terrorist Mohktar Bel Mohktar of Al Qaeda of the Islamic Magreb, on whom the US Defence Department had placed a 2 million dollar tag.

This is a formidable reputation. But, is Yaounde losing its war? The most recent figures published by Cameroon’s Ministry of Defence put the Army at a comfortable position in battles against the terrorist establishment.

Early in January, like during the past year, Boko Haram endured heavy loses when they attempted to seize a military camp in Kolofata, bringing the estimate number of deaths on the militia’s side to above 1000 militants since the escalation. On their side, the Cameroon military counts slightly over a hundred fallen among the 7000 troops deployed in the region, giving them a wide edge. “I hope they learn their lesson”, President Biya had said on the last day of December 2014.

It now appears that beneath Yaoundé’s public exhibition of satisfaction at the prospect of a swift victory over the insurgent militia that has slaughtered over 30.000, taken hundreds of hostages and now plans to establish a Sharia Caliphate across Sahel Africa from its base in Northern Nigeria, lies a layer of deep anxiety.

Despite his long-standing display for pan-Africanism and the defence of the nation-state, the ‘Emir of the Sahel’ as the French satiric daily le Canard Enchainé styles him, Colonel Idriss Deby Itno is a much-feared man. Deby’s troubled role in the wave of violence that swept the Central African Republic, early in 2012, leading to the ousting of President Francois Bozize and the abortive transition under Seleka rebel leader, Michel Djotodia is an item on his CV that hurts his benevolence.

Before deciding to pull out completely from the multinational effort to pacify the CAR, Chad’s motives sparked international controversy when his troops reportedly allowed Seleka rebels to seize more villages and strengthen their grip to the north of Bangui.

“It is difficult to judge or to negate the intentions of President Deby… but it will be very important for both armies to determine the level of each other’s intervention”, argues Thierry Ndong, editor of Yaoundé’s Integration newspaper. “The past has demonstrated that foreign countries usually have very high stakes in conflict areas, he said on a Canal 2 debate programme, Sunday.

Other extreme voices have questioned his role in hostage negotiations in the region. Although not being directly involved in the war, Colonel Deby informed the France that he had been key in the negotiations leading to the liberation of Chinese hostages. At one point, he promised to free the Chibok girls.

Ndjamena is host to an important French deployment codenamed ‘Opération Barkhane’, an antiterrorist unit armed with drones and other sophisticated military equipment that could easily track rebel movements in the area. However, our military source insinuated that Cameroon has not solicited the entry of the French on the ground.

Last week, the Boko Haram insurgents attacked Baga, a locality on the Nigeria-Chad border, killing some 2000 villagers, mostly women, children and old people. So far, only the Lake Chad may be holding Boko Haram from directly attacking Chad, a reality that may explain the current show of support.

During his end of year address, President Biya told his countrymen that the colossal cost of running the war, had prevented the government from engaging on huge investments, revealing that the war effort taking a dismal toll on the economy. With the entry of Chadian troops into the fight, Cameroon has to underwrite the war cost, including the most basic needs of feeding and fueling a 2000 man force.

However, beyond paying the heavy war bill, the past antics of a ‘friend and brother’ may perturb Yaoundé.