Cameroon economy 2014: Recent developments and prospects

Energy supplies increased in 2013, but remain insufficient to meet demand. This situation should improve in 2014, with the Kribi gas-fired power station set to open. The supply of electricity should gradually increase and become more reliable, reducing the frequency of load shedding. In 2013 the recovery of extraction industries consolidated, thanks notably to the opening of new oil and gas wells. The agricultural sector recorded gains once again in the north of the country, after floods in 2012 severely disrupted agricultural production cycles.

Nevertheless, the economy was hit somewhat by poor performances in the agriculture and forestry sectors (cotton, cocoa, timber), which are exposed to the volatility of commodity prices. The unattractive business environment and high production-factor costs continue to weigh heavily on local industries’ competitiveness. Consequently, real GDP growth was below the DSCE target of 5.5% for the 2010-20 period, reaching only 4.9%.

The GDP supply structure is still dominated by the tertiary sector (47.8% of GDP). The primary and secondary sectors have seen their shares of GDP fall to 22.5% and 29.7%. The fastest-growing sectors (see Table 2 below) are trade, hotels and restaurants (19.9% of GDP), agriculture (16.9%), manufacturing (14.5%), and the extractive industries (8.2%). Together, these five sectors account for 60% of GDP.

The primary sector experienced a slowdown in 2011 and 2012 caused by the poor performance of export-based industrial agriculture (-3.7% in 2012), but recorded growth of 3.6% in 2013. This trend is bolstered by the upturn in export-based industrial agriculture and the strong growth in subsistence agriculture. These sectors have benefited from a number of factors: i) XAF 3 billion (CFA Franc BEAC) were granted for purchasing agricultural equipment for the two main riceindustry operators (SEMRY and UNVDA); ii) producers were provided with fertilisers, pesticides and several high-yield seed varieties (rice, maize, cassava, plantain, potato, yam, sorghum, etc.); iii) the cotton agro-industry (SODECOTON) obtained loans for XAF 6.5 billion and XAF 10 billion in February 2011 and March 2012 respectively from local banks to operate the 2011/12 and 2012/13 seasons; and iv) new coffee and cocoa farms began production. Despite these factors, the slowdown in the global economy, especially in the euro area and in China, has reduced demand for certain primary products exported by Cameroon, especially in forestry and logging.

Secondary-sector growth increased from 4.9% in 2012 to 5.7% in 2013. This acceleration can be attributed to the upturns in oil production (+4.5%), construction (10.5%), and electricity production (+6.5%) since the opening of the Kribi gas-fired power station and its knock-on effects on the other manufacturing industries, which recorded real growth of 5.2%.

Tertiary-sector real growth was 5.9% in 2013, up from 5.5% in 2012, thanks to the upturn in the primary and secondary sectors. Moreover, the increase in the transport sector’s supply-side capacity, especially road and rail transport, and the continued expansion of fibre optics helped drive strong growth in the transport and communications sectors (8%)1,2.

On the demand side, GDP growth has been driven by domestic demand, which grew by 5.9%. Although net external demand improved, it remained negative with an estimated deficit of 8.3% of GDP, with imports increasing, especially food (rice, fish, etc.), construction material (cement, etc.) and capital goods for major infrastructure projects.

Private consumption grew by 5.2% in 2013, as household income increased thanks to the payment of salaries and allowances to young graduates working in the civil service and recruitment for major infrastructure projects. However, public consumption growth slowed in 2013 to 1.7% (from 6.6% in 2012) due to delays in the spending of loans provided to public bodies, which needed time to adapt when programme budgeting was introduced. Overall, consumption represented 88.3% of GDP in 2013.

After a slight slowdown in 2012, the investment rate rebounded 0.8 percentage points to 20% of GDP, thanks mainly to a half percentage point rise in public investment for major infrastructure projects. Private investment increased by 0.3 percentage points, benefiting from investment facilities provided by the government, a 12.3% rise in bank lending to the private sector, a larger supply of energy, and the knock-on effects of major infrastructure projects. Investment in mineral and oil exploration, meanwhile, should increase now that Cameroon has been declared compliant with the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI).

The outlook for 2014 and 2015 is good. The extractive industries (mainly oil and gas) are expected to continue the upward trend in 2012-13 thanks to improved yields expected from existing wells (in the Rio Del Rey field), the start of operations on new deposits (M’via, Dissoni), gas production (Sanaga South) mainly for use at the Kribi gas-fired power station, and more intensive exploitation of the Logbaba gas field.

The primary sector’s growth prospects remain good, with the opening of new cocoa, coffee, cotton, rubber, palm oil, maize and rice farms and the continued modernisation of farming techniques, including promoting mechanisation and distributing fertilisers, seedlings and highyield seeds. The fisheries sector is also expected to grow. Primary-sector growth could reach 5.7% in 2014 and 9.0% in 2015.

Unlike in 2013, when the Kribi gas-fired power station was only operational during the final six months of the year, in 2014 the additional energy supply (+216 megawatts) will be available to industries throughout the year. There has also been a diversification of industrial energy sources, with the progressive introduction of a cheaper, more regular industrial gas thanks to a pipeline built in the Douala industrial zone by Rodeo Development Limited for an investment cost estimated at XAF 45 billion. These developments in the energy supply and the new investment facilities (the 2013 Private Investment Incentives Act) bode well for an upturn in industrial activity in 2014 and 2015. The construction sector, meanwhile, will remain strong in 2014 and 2015 thanks to the construction of the Lom Pangar, Memve’ele and Mekin dams, the start of work on a second bridge over the River Wouri and road infrastructure. Finally, large-scale semi-industrial and industrial exploitation of the country’s abundant mineral resources (iron, diamond, bauxite, cobalt, etc.) should further boost growth. Consequently the government is in the process of revising the current mining code to produce a more attractive code. Forecasts predict secondarysector growth of 5.0% in 2014 and an average of 5.6% between 2015 and 2018.

The tertiary sector should benefit from high growth in the other sectors as well as from capacity-building for services in the transport, telecommunications and hotel and restaurant industries. The tertiary sector is therefore forecast to grow by 5.4% in 2014 and 5.5% in 2015. Real GDP growth should hover at around 5% from 2014, despite uncertain world growth.